WHY THE UK SHOULD REMAIN IN THE EU
Posted by Rob Wood, UK Economist Leaving the EU would be the height of folly for the UK. The sums just do not add up. As part of the union, Britain participates in a free trade project unparalleled...
View ArticleTHE SHIFT IN SENTIMENT
What a difference eight weeks can make. From November to mid-January, many observers in the US and UK seemed to be worried stiff about the imaginary risks of Eurozone deflation. Time and again, I had...
View ArticleREMEMBER THE DEFLATION SCARE?
What a difference eight weeks can make. Until late January, international observers seemed to be worried stiff about the risk of Eurozone deflation. Now, the subject hardly comes up any more in...
View ArticleTHE COSTS OF POPULISM
Words matter. By shaping expectations, they can move markets and economies a lot. On the positive side, ECB president Draghi ended the systemic euro crisis on 26 July 2012 when he declared that the ECB...
View ArticleGREECE: CLOSER TO THE ABYSS
Tsipras calls a referendum for 5 July, asking Greeks to reject creditor conditions for further loans to Greece. Eurogroup finance ministers react by ending talks about bailout extension, which will...
View ArticleTHE GREEK CHOICE: EUROS OR BOLIVARS ?
Greek voters face a simple choice this Sunday: do they want euros – or Venezuelan-style bolivars? Forget what Tsipras is saying about needing a “no” to strengthen his bargaining position. As in...
View ArticleGREECE: POLITICS AFTER THE REFERENDUM
REFERENDUM: A CLOSE CALL Will the common sense of the euro trump the charisma of Tsipras? The outcome of the Greek referendum on Sunday is stilL too close to call. But the political future of Greece’s...
View ArticleTOUGH LOVE AT WORK: EUROZONE BASICS
Grexit or not, the Greek saga has already turned into a tragedy for Greece. Within less than six months, a radical left government has aborted the Greek recovery of 2014, pushed the economy back into a...
View ArticleGREEK DEBT HAIRCUT: THE BIG FAT RED HERRING
What debt relief does Greece need? Once again, this has turned into a hot topic. Some excitable pundits even worry that a dispute between the IMF (“Greece needs a lot of debt relief”) and the Eurozone...
View ArticleMIGRATION: NOTES ON THE POTENTIAL IMPACT ON EUROPE
Looking for safety and a job. The rise in immigration has become a major issue in Europe. To some extent, the pictures of migrants trying to make their way north after having crossed the Mediterranean...
View ArticleCHINA AND OIL: NO NEED TO PANIC
Seven years after the post-Lehman crisis, memories of the disaster are still fairly fresh. Whenever things get wobbly, many scarred market participants are still inclined to sell first and ask...
View ArticleSEVEN REASONS WHY WE ARE NOT HEADING FOR RECESSION
Economic upswings don’t die of old age. They end because a cleansing recession is needed after the exuberance of a boom or because an external shock deals a devastating blow to the system. Across the...
View ArticleTHE VAROUFAKIS EFFECT
Rarely has a new government done so much damage in just one year. And rarely has a finance minister done so well for himself after having harmed his own country so badly within just six months in...
View ArticleBRITAIN BEWARE: THE POWER OF TRADE DIVERSION
How would the UK fare outside the EU? Nobody knows for sure. A divorce can be smooth, causing only modest damage. Or it can be messy, inflicting serious pain on everybody except the lawyers. It would...
View ArticleTHE POLITICS OF BREXIT: A GERMAN VIEW
For once, let me start with the disclaimer: I am a German who has spent half of his adult life in London. That may colour my perspective. I am amazed by the current German backlash against the ECB, the...
View ArticleAFTER THE BREXIT SHOCK
KEY NEWS: - British regret? Over 3 million people sign an online petition to the UK parliament to discuss a second referendum. - UK Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn faces a leadership challenge after...
View ArticleBREXIT? WHAT BREXIT? TAKING STOCK TWO MONTHS AFTER THE VOTE
Two months ago, the world woke up to learn that the UK had voted to leave the European Union. For two major reasons, the initial shock has subsided fast: • Instead of taking charge, the leading...
View ArticleCOPING WITH THE POLITICS OF ANGER
For better or worse, we are living in exciting times. Globalisation and rapid technological change are creating huge opportunities. However, the gains are not evenly distributed. The major winners are...
View ArticlePresident Trump
After the UK vote for Brexit on 23 June, Trump’s triumph this is the second major upset victory for anti-establishment populists in the Western world this year. It does not bode well for votes to come...
View ArticleAFTER TRUMP: NOTES ON THE PERILS OF POPULISM
Populism, protectionism, nationalism and the erosion of the political middle ground: In Europe more so than in the US, some aspects of Donald Trump’s successful election campaign evoke memories of the...
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